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Cesar Salazar v Arturo Salazar (Sat 20 Oct 2018)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 9-11,11-8,12-10,8-11,11-8.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 42,125, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 37,803, level confidence: 55%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Arturo Salazar.

Cesar Salazar won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 9% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of 41,675 and Arturo Salazar at a level of 38,212. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to -0.6% and Arturo Salazar changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes -0.2% and for Arturo Salazar becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 95%, Arturo Salazar: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 94%, Arturo Salazar: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 41,981, level confidence: 94%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar: 38,040, level confidence: 74%.