Arturo Salazar v Campbell Grayson (Fri 19 Oct 2018)
Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 11-5,12-10,11-2.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
35,842, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
32,984, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Campbell Grayson.
Arturo Salazar won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played
100% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Arturo Salazar actually played at a level of
48,625 and Campbell Grayson at a level of
24,313. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar changes to +34% and Campbell Grayson changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar becomes +6.5% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -4.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Arturo Salazar is limited to +5.4% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 76%, Campbell Grayson: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 56%, Campbell Grayson: 64%.
A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
37,803, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
32,302, level confidence: 64%.