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Mostafa Asal v Eain Yow Ng (Fri 19 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-7,12-10,11-8.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 30,160, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 31,429, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Mostafa Asal.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 42% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 36,723 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 25,812. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +21% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +4.6% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 77%, Eain Yow Ng: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 63%, Eain Yow Ng: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 31,398, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 30,797, level confidence: 71%.