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Tom Richards v Omar Mosaad (Thu 18 Oct 2018)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 10-12,11-7,13-11,11-2.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 36,841, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 38,539, level confidence: 52%.
Omar Mosaad to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Tom Richards.

Tom Richards won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 30% better than Omar Mosaad in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 42,988 and Omar Mosaad at a level of 33,028. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +14% and Omar Mosaad changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +3.2% and for Omar Mosaad becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 78%, Omar Mosaad: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 67%, Omar Mosaad: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 37,920, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Omar Mosaad: 37,791, level confidence: 62%.