Tom Richards v Borja Golan (Wed 17 Oct 2018)
Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-2,8-11,11-8,11-5.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
34,989, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Borja Golan:
44,168, level confidence: 61%.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing
26% better than Tom Richards.
Tom Richards won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played
36% better than Borja Golan in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of
45,809 and Borja Golan at a level of
33,736. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +26% and Borja Golan changes to -27%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +5.2% and for Borja Golan becomes -5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 80%, Borja Golan: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 61%, Borja Golan: 60%.
A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tom Richards:
36,656, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Borja Golan:
43,099, level confidence: 60%.