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Jaymie Haycocks v Joeri Hapers (Wed 17 Oct 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 12-10,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,513, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joeri Hapers: 16,522, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Joeri Hapers.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 62% better than Joeri Hapers in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of 24,540 and Joeri Hapers at a level of 15,157. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 7.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +7.2% and Joeri Hapers changes to -7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +2.1% and for Joeri Hapers becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 90%, Joeri Hapers: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 83%, Joeri Hapers: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,992, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Joeri Hapers: 16,138, level confidence: 80%.