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Emyr Evans v Julian Tomlinson (Tue 16 Oct 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 10-12,9-11,12-10,11-4,12-10.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,966, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 16,775, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Julian Tomlinson.

Emyr Evans won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 11% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.

As Emyr Evans has played below his allowed range at 20,227, his level reduction is 8.4% before damping. On the assumption that Emyr Evans would normally have been playing at level 23,037 (based on typical behaviour), Julian Tomlinson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to -7% and Julian Tomlinson changes to +7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes -2.1% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes +2.3%.

Given Emyr Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 46% has been applied to his level change.

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Emyr Evans is -1.1% and for Julian Tomlinson is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 77%, Julian Tomlinson: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 68%, Julian Tomlinson: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,775, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,033, level confidence: 76%.