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Paul Coll v Diego Elias (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 51,486, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Elias: 43,746, level confidence: 68%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Diego Elias.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 136% better than Diego Elias in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 72,863 and Diego Elias at a level of 30,912. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +35% and Diego Elias changes to -38%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +6.3% and for Diego Elias becomes -6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Coll is limited to +4.9% and Diego Elias is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 86%, Diego Elias: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 60%, Diego Elias: 58%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 54,002, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Diego Elias: 41,664, level confidence: 58%.