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Zahed Mohamed v Arturo Salazar (Mon 08 Oct 2018)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 11-7,9-11,11-2,7-11,11-5.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 36,099, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 34,313, level confidence: 48%.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Arturo Salazar.

Zahed Mohamed won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 17% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of 37,992 and Arturo Salazar at a level of 32,603. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +3.2% and Arturo Salazar changes to -5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +1.2% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 88%, Arturo Salazar: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 84%, Arturo Salazar: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 36,486, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar: 33,868, level confidence: 66%.