Chris Simpson v Gregoire Marche (Mon 08 Oct 2018)
Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-6,8-11,9-11,11-9,11-7.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
34,600, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
43,378, level confidence: 66%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Chris Simpson.
Chris Simpson won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played
11% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of
40,800 and Gregoire Marche at a level of
36,787. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +16% and Gregoire Marche changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +3.5% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -2.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 73%, Gregoire Marche: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 62%, Gregoire Marche: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
35,833, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
42,264, level confidence: 69%.