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Nic Birt v Matthew Crowley (Thu 11 Oct 2018)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 5-11,11-9,11-8,4-11,13-11.

Starting level for Nic Birt: 8,790, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Matthew Crowley: 5,609, level confidence: 46%.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Matthew Crowley.

Nic Birt won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 5% better than Matthew Crowley in this match.

As Nic Birt has played below his allowed range at 6,715, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Nic Birt would normally have been playing at level 8,285 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Crowley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nic Birt changes to -8.1% and Matthew Crowley changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nic Birt becomes -2.8% and for Matthew Crowley becomes +4.9%.

Given Nic Birt's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Crowley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Nic Birt is -1.8% and for Matthew Crowley is +3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 79%, Matthew Crowley: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 65%, Matthew Crowley: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nic Birt: 8,618, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Matthew Crowley: 5,802, level confidence: 55%.