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Dallas Hayvice v Ricky Davies (Thu 11 Oct 2018)

Match won by Ricky Davies. Result: 11-13,5-11,4-11.

Starting level for Dallas Hayvice: 4,732, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Ricky Davies: 13,290, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Ricky Davies to win as he is currently playing 181% better than Dallas Hayvice.

Ricky Davies won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ricky Davies played 75% better than Dallas Hayvice in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ricky Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,541 and 13,290 without affecting his level.

In this case, Ricky Davies played at level 9,250 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ricky Davies would normally have been playing at level 10,331 (based on typical behaviour), Dallas Hayvice played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ricky Davies changes to 0% and Dallas Hayvice changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ricky Davies becomes 0% and for Dallas Hayvice becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Ricky Davies is 0% and for Dallas Hayvice is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ricky Davies: 86%, Dallas Hayvice: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ricky Davies: 68%, Dallas Hayvice: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dallas Hayvice: 4,827, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Ricky Davies: 13,270, level confidence: 68%.