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Joel Preece v Emyr Evans (Thu 11 Oct 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 8-11,3-11,4-11.

Starting level for Joel Preece: 5,935, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 24,066, level confidence: 69%.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 305% better than Joel Preece.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 120% better than Joel Preece in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Emyr Evans was taking it easy by anything up to 35%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,174 and 24,066 without affecting his level.

In this case, Emyr Evans played at level 14,307 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Emyr Evans would normally have been playing at level 15,676 (based on typical behaviour), Joel Preece played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to 0% and Joel Preece changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes 0% and for Joel Preece becomes +2.1%.

Given Joel Preece's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Emyr Evans is 0% and for Joel Preece is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 83%, Joel Preece: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 61%, Joel Preece: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Preece: 6,018, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 24,030, level confidence: 61%.