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Josh Davies v Ben Howcroft (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Josh Davies. Result: 13-15,12-15,17-15,15-13,17-14.

Starting level for Josh Davies: 1,371, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Ben Howcroft: 2,102, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Ben Howcroft to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Josh Davies.

Josh Davies won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh Davies played 8% better than Ben Howcroft in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josh Davies actually played at a level of 1,766 and Ben Howcroft at a level of 1,632. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh Davies changes to +23% and Ben Howcroft changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh Davies becomes +10.8% and for Ben Howcroft becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mid Glamorgan Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Josh Davies is +8.1% and for Ben Howcroft is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh Davies: 77%, Ben Howcroft: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh Davies: 60%, Ben Howcroft: 68%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Josh Davies: 1,480, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Ben Howcroft: 2,044, level confidence: 68%.