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Jaymie Haycocks v Jack Martell (Fri 05 Oct 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,165, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jack Martell: 11,205, level confidence: 62%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Jack Martell.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 65% better than Jack Martell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jaymie Haycocks was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,634 and 22,165 without affecting his level.

In this case, Jaymie Haycocks played at level 18,992 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 19,510 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Martell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to 0% and Jack Martell changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes 0% and for Jack Martell becomes +0.9%.

Given Jack Martell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks is 0% and for Jack Martell is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 84%, Jack Martell: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 77%, Jack Martell: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,220, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Jack Martell: 11,299, level confidence: 72%.