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Josh Davies v Gary Fry (Wed 10 Oct 2018)

Match won by Gary Fry. Result: 15-10,7-15,8-15,13-15.

Starting level for Josh Davies: 1,486, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Gary Fry: 3,260, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Gary Fry to win as he is currently playing 119% better than Josh Davies.

Gary Fry won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gary Fry played 26% better than Josh Davies in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Gary Fry was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,269 and 3,260 without affecting his level.

As Gary Fry has played below his allowed range at 2,061, his level reduction is 10.1% before damping. On the assumption that Gary Fry would normally have been playing at level 2,775 (based on typical behaviour), Josh Davies played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gary Fry changes to -5.3% and Josh Davies changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gary Fry becomes -2.7% and for Josh Davies becomes +7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mid Glamorgan Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Gary Fry is -2% and for Josh Davies is +5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gary Fry: 87%, Josh Davies: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gary Fry: 66%, Josh Davies: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Josh Davies: 1,564, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Gary Fry: 3,222, level confidence: 66%.