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Jaymie Haycocks v Jack Turney (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-9,11-1,11-4.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,316, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jack Turney: 11,202, level confidence: 70%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 99% better than Jack Turney.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 136% better than Jack Turney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of 24,274 and Jack Turney at a level of 10,298. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +5.1% and Jack Turney changes to -6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +1.7% and for Jack Turney becomes -2.2%.

Given Jaymie Haycocks's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jack Turney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks is +0.9% and for Jack Turney is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 92%, Jack Turney: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 85%, Jack Turney: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,570, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Jack Turney: 11,078, level confidence: 77%.