Aran Edwards v Tej Saran Singh (Thu 04 Oct 2018)
Match won by Tej Saran Singh. Result: 9-15,8-15,10-15.
Starting level for
Aran Edwards:
4,349, level confidence: 25%.
Starting level for
Tej Saran Singh:
6,585, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Tej Saran Singh to win as he is currently playing
51% better than Aran Edwards.
Tej Saran Singh won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tej Saran Singh played
67% better than Aran Edwards in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tej Saran Singh actually played at a level of
6,909 and Aran Edwards at a level of
4,145. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tej Saran Singh changes to +1.3% and Aran Edwards changes to -4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tej Saran Singh becomes +0.7% and for Aran Edwards becomes -2.1%.
Given Tej Saran Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.3% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Tej Saran Singh is +0.5% and for Aran Edwards is -1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tej Saran Singh: 86%, Aran Edwards: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tej Saran Singh: 82%, Aran Edwards: 48%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Aran Edwards:
4,274, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Tej Saran Singh:
6,609, level confidence: 82%.