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Jaymie Haycocks v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Mon 08 Oct 2018)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 11-7,8-11,8-11,7-11.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,326, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 26,223, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Jaymie Haycocks.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 23% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of 26,788 and Jaymie Haycocks at a level of 21,855. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +1.9% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to -2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +0.8% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -0.8%.

Given Jan Van Den Herrewegen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 50% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jaymie Haycocks's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen is +0.4% and for Jaymie Haycocks is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 88%, Jaymie Haycocks: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 87%, Jaymie Haycocks: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,284, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 26,393, level confidence: 87%.