Diego Elias v Mathieu Castagnet (Sat 29 Sep 2018)
Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-7,10-12,8-11,11-7,11-7.
Starting level for
Diego Elias:
44,140, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mathieu Castagnet:
48,234, level confidence: 61%.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Diego Elias.
Diego Elias won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played
11% better than Mathieu Castagnet in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of
48,718 and Mathieu Castagnet at a level of
43,702. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +7.8% and Mathieu Castagnet changes to -9.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +2% and for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 88%, Mathieu Castagnet: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 80%, Mathieu Castagnet: 71%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Diego Elias:
45,026, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet:
47,237, level confidence: 71%.