Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Omar Abdel Meguid (Fri 28 Sep 2018)
Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 11-7,13-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
40,542, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Omar Abdel Meguid:
29,145, level confidence: 61%.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Omar Abdel Meguid.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played
41% better than Omar Abdel Meguid in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of
40,867 and Omar Abdel Meguid at a level of
28,913. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 0.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +0.7% and Omar Abdel Meguid changes to -0.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +0.3% and for Omar Abdel Meguid becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 77%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 77%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
40,604, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Omar Abdel Meguid:
29,190, level confidence: 78%.