Simon Rösner v Tom Richards (Sat 23 Jun 2018)
Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 9-11,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
Simon Rösner:
57,476, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
38,735, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing
48% better than Tom Richards.
Simon Rösner won 67% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played
17% better than Tom Richards in this match.
As Simon Rösner has played below his allowed range at 48,771, his level reduction is 7.2% before damping. On the assumption that Simon Rösner would normally have been playing at level 54,828 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Richards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 8% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 5.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to -4.4% and Tom Richards changes to +5.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes -1.3% and for Tom Richards becomes +1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Sheraton Rhodes Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 84%, Tom Richards: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 75%, Tom Richards: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Simon Rösner:
56,698, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Tom Richards:
39,433, level confidence: 78%.