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Lewys Audsley v Josh Davies (Fri 05 Oct 2018)

Match won by Lewys Audsley. Result: 15-3,15-7,15-10.

Starting level for Lewys Audsley: 2,259, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Josh Davies: 1,416, level confidence: 52%.
Lewys Audsley to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Josh Davies.

Lewys Audsley won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewys Audsley played 125% better than Josh Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewys Audsley actually played at a level of 2,683 and Josh Davies at a level of 1,192. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewys Audsley changes to +11% and Josh Davies changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewys Audsley becomes +5.2% and for Josh Davies becomes -7.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mid Glamorgan Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Lewys Audsley is +3.9% and for Josh Davies is -5.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewys Audsley: 82%, Josh Davies: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewys Audsley: 69%, Josh Davies: 61%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewys Audsley: 2,343, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Josh Davies: 1,376, level confidence: 61%.