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Liam Corrigan v Lewys Hurst (Thu 27 Sep 2018)

Match won by Lewys Hurst. Result: 5-11,12-10,4-11,8-11.

Starting level for Liam Corrigan: 4,302, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewys Hurst: 9,964, level confidence: 57%.
Lewys Hurst to win as he is currently playing 132% better than Liam Corrigan.

Lewys Hurst won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewys Hurst played 33% better than Liam Corrigan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lewys Hurst was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,658 and 9,964 without affecting his level.

As Lewys Hurst has played below his allowed range at 6,165, his level reduction is 8% before damping. On the assumption that Lewys Hurst would normally have been playing at level 8,330 (based on typical behaviour), Liam Corrigan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst changes to -5.2% and Liam Corrigan changes to +9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst becomes -2% and for Liam Corrigan becomes +3.9%.

Given Lewys Hurst's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Lewys Hurst is -1.3% and for Liam Corrigan is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewys Hurst: 76%, Liam Corrigan: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewys Hurst: 57%, Liam Corrigan: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Corrigan: 4,420, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Lewys Hurst: 9,821, level confidence: 57%.