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Lewys Hurst v James Peach (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-9,8-11,11-13,6-11.

Starting level for Lewys Hurst: 9,877, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for James Peach: 13,824, level confidence: 49%.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Lewys Hurst.

James Peach won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 24% better than Lewys Hurst in this match.

As James Peach has played below his allowed range at 12,506, his level reduction is 2% before damping. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 13,341 (based on typical behaviour), Lewys Hurst played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to -1.4% and Lewys Hurst changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes -0.6% and for Lewys Hurst becomes +1.7%.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewys Hurst's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for James Peach is -0.4% and for Lewys Hurst is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 70%, Lewys Hurst: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 66%, Lewys Hurst: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewys Hurst: 9,967, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for James Peach: 13,751, level confidence: 66%.