Jaymie Haycocks v Sean Conroy (Sat 22 Sep 2018)
Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-9,11-7,19-17.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
22,640, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Sean Conroy:
16,956, level confidence: 62%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Sean Conroy.
Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played
34% better than Sean Conroy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of
22,714 and Sean Conroy at a level of
16,901. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to 0% and Sean Conroy changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +0.1% and for Sean Conroy becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 68%, Sean Conroy: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 68%, Sean Conroy: 78%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
22,667, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Sean Conroy:
16,940, level confidence: 78%.