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Raphael Kandra v Jaymie Haycocks (Sat 22 Sep 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 7-11,9-11,5-11.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 44,055, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 21,250, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 107% better than Jaymie Haycocks.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 56% better than Raphael Kandra in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of 38,269 and Raphael Kandra at a level of 24,463. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 80% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 50% and 50% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +43% and Raphael Kandra changes to -50%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +8.7% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -8.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jaymie Haycocks is limited to +6.4% and Raphael Kandra is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 84%, Raphael Kandra: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 47%, Raphael Kandra: 43%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 42,012, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 22,634, level confidence: 47%.