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Joshua Masters v Emyr Evans (Fri 21 Sep 2018)

Match won by Joshua Masters. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Joshua Masters: 34,791, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 24,511, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Joshua Masters to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Emyr Evans.

Joshua Masters won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Masters played 230% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Masters actually played at a level of 53,048 and Emyr Evans at a level of 16,075. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 42% and 42% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Masters changes to +40% and Emyr Evans changes to -42%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Masters becomes +7.5% and for Emyr Evans becomes -8.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joshua Masters is limited to +5.5% and Emyr Evans is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Masters: 90%, Emyr Evans: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Masters: 59%, Emyr Evans: 58%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Masters: 36,732, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,724, level confidence: 58%.