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Emyr Evans v David Zeman (Wed 19 Sep 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-5,11-3,10-12,11-5.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 24,281, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for David Zeman: 11,418, level confidence: 52%.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 113% better than David Zeman.

Emyr Evans won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 72% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 41% better than David Zeman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Emyr Evans was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,948 and 24,281 without affecting his level.

As Emyr Evans has played below his allowed range at 16,969, his level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Emyr Evans would normally have been playing at level 20,876 (based on typical behaviour), David Zeman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 9.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to -3% and David Zeman changes to +9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes -1.2% and for David Zeman becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 82%, David Zeman: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 67%, David Zeman: 59%.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,982, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for David Zeman: 11,755, level confidence: 59%.