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Ashley Davies v Thomas King (Tue 18 Sep 2018)

Match won by Ashley Davies. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Ashley Davies: 17,970, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for Thomas King: 7,072, level confidence: 50%.
Ashley Davies to win as he is currently playing 154% better than Thomas King.

Ashley Davies won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ashley Davies played 56% better than Thomas King in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ashley Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,750 and 17,970 without affecting his level.

As Ashley Davies has played below his allowed range at 11,401, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Ashley Davies would normally have been playing at level 14,531 (based on typical behaviour), Thomas King played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ashley Davies changes to -1.9% and Thomas King changes to +6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ashley Davies becomes -0.8% and for Thomas King becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ashley Davies: 60%, Thomas King: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ashley Davies: 47%, Thomas King: 55%.

Final level for Ashley Davies: 17,820, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Thomas King: 7,249, level confidence: 55%.