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Daniel Bergin v Ross Cassley (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by Daniel Bergin. Result: 7-11,9-11,12-10,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 7,338, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Ross Cassley: 4,930, level confidence: 59%.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Ross Cassley.

Daniel Bergin won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Bergin played 9% better than Ross Cassley in this match.

As Daniel Bergin has played below his allowed range at 5,937, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Daniel Bergin would normally have been playing at level 6,995 (based on typical behaviour), Ross Cassley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.9% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin changes to -8.9% and Ross Cassley changes to +9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Bergin becomes -3.2% and for Ross Cassley becomes +3.6%.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Daniel Bergin is -2.2% and for Ross Cassley is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Bergin: 69%, Ross Cassley: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Bergin: 59%, Ross Cassley: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Bergin: 7,173, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Ross Cassley: 5,054, level confidence: 65%.