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Ricky Davies v Greg Tippings (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by Ricky Davies. Result: 11-9,12-10,7-11,11-9.

Starting level for Ricky Davies: 13,169, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Greg Tippings: 12,429, level confidence: 59%.
Ricky Davies to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Greg Tippings.

Ricky Davies won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ricky Davies played 18% better than Greg Tippings in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ricky Davies actually played at a level of 13,923 and Greg Tippings at a level of 11,755. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ricky Davies changes to +5.6% and Greg Tippings changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ricky Davies becomes +2% and for Greg Tippings becomes -1.6%.

Given Ricky Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Given Greg Tippings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Ricky Davies is +1.2% and for Greg Tippings is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ricky Davies: 65%, Greg Tippings: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ricky Davies: 61%, Greg Tippings: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ricky Davies: 13,306, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Greg Tippings: 12,289, level confidence: 73%.