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Valentin Rapp v Jaymie Haycocks (Wed 12 Sep 2018)

Match won by Valentin Rapp. Result: 11-4,5-11,16-14,13-11.

Starting level for Valentin Rapp: 22,254, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 21,524, level confidence: 64%.
Valentin Rapp to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Jaymie Haycocks.

Valentin Rapp won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Valentin Rapp played 21% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Valentin Rapp actually played at a level of 24,062 and Jaymie Haycocks at a level of 19,907. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Valentin Rapp changes to +6.4% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Valentin Rapp becomes +2% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sportwerk Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Valentin Rapp: 89%, Jaymie Haycocks: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Valentin Rapp: 82%, Jaymie Haycocks: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Valentin Rapp: 22,664, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 21,106, level confidence: 74%.