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John Procter v Ricky Davies (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Ricky Davies. Result: 8-11,9-11,4-11.

Starting level for John Procter: 3,936, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Ricky Davies: 13,210, level confidence: 40%.
Ricky Davies to win as he is currently playing 236% better than John Procter.

Ricky Davies won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ricky Davies played 56% better than John Procter in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ricky Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,269 and 13,210 without affecting his level.

As Ricky Davies has played below his allowed range at 6,213, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Ricky Davies would normally have been playing at level 9,485 (based on typical behaviour), John Procter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ricky Davies changes to -0.5% and John Procter changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ricky Davies becomes -0.2% and for John Procter becomes +4.7%.

Given Ricky Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Ricky Davies is 0% and for John Procter is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ricky Davies: 63%, John Procter: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ricky Davies: 43%, John Procter: 42%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Procter: 4,070, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Ricky Davies: 13,173, level confidence: 43%.