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Chris Hill v Emyr Evans (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 1-11,2-11,2-11.

Starting level for Chris Hill: 4,952, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 24,079, level confidence: 66%.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 386% better than Chris Hill.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 560% better than Chris Hill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of 28,053 and Chris Hill at a level of 4,250. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 7.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +4.6% and Chris Hill changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +1.6% and for Chris Hill becomes -3%.

Given Emyr Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 46% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Emyr Evans is +0.8% and for Chris Hill is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 81%, Chris Hill: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 70%, Chris Hill: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hill: 4,837, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 24,239, level confidence: 70%.