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Phil Harris v Josh Davies (Tue 11 Sep 2018)

Match won by Phil Harris. Result: 15-7,15-5,15-11.

Starting level for Phil Harris: 2,196, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Josh Davies: 1,444, level confidence: 45%.
Phil Harris to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Josh Davies.

Phil Harris won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Harris played 96% better than Josh Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Harris actually played at a level of 2,491 and Josh Davies at a level of 1,273. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.8% and 10.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Harris changes to +10.8% and Josh Davies changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Harris becomes +5% and for Josh Davies becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mid Glamorgan Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Phil Harris is +3.8% and for Josh Davies is -4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Harris: 65%, Josh Davies: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Harris: 57%, Josh Davies: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Harris: 2,275, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Josh Davies: 1,413, level confidence: 59%.