Paul Coll v Abdulla Al-Tamimi (Fri 07 Sep 2018)
Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-7,9-11,5-11,11-7,11-5.
Starting level for
Paul Coll:
53,710, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for
Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
40,096, level confidence: 51%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.
Paul Coll won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played
11% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi in this match.
As Paul Coll has played below his allowed range at 47,592, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Coll would normally have been playing at level 52,244 (based on typical behaviour), Abdulla Al-Tamimi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 7.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to -5.8% and Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +5.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes -1.6% and for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 61%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 56%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Coll:
52,739, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
40,703, level confidence: 65%.