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Mohamed Abouelghar v Tom Richards (Thu 06 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-8,14-12,11-3.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 44,748, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 36,642, level confidence: 51%.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Tom Richards.

Mohamed Abouelghar won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 56% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of 50,578 and Tom Richards at a level of 32,418. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +12% and Tom Richards changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +2.7% and for Tom Richards becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 65%, Tom Richards: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 57%, Tom Richards: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 45,680, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 35,908, level confidence: 63%.