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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Nicolas Mueller (Thu 06 Sep 2018)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 13-11,11-3,11-1.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 38,050, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 38,628, level confidence: 55%.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 133% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 133% better than Nicolas Mueller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of 58,562 and Nicolas Mueller at a level of 25,098. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +47% and Nicolas Mueller changes to -53%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +8.3% and for Nicolas Mueller becomes -9.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Abdulla Al-Tamimi is limited to +5.4% and Nicolas Mueller is limited to -5.3% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 79%, Nicolas Mueller: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 51%, Nicolas Mueller: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 40,063, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 36,653, level confidence: 48%.