Tom Richards v Wang Junjie (Wed 05 Sep 2018)
Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-1,11-0,11-3.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
35,470, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Wang Junjie:
8,764, level confidence: 40%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing
305% better than Wang Junjie.
Tom Richards won all of the games and 89% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 725% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played
725% better than Wang Junjie in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of
50,642 and Wang Junjie at a level of
6,138. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +15% and Wang Junjie changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +3.3% and for Wang Junjie becomes -5.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 73%, Wang Junjie: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 51%, Wang Junjie: 45%.
Final level for Tom Richards:
36,642, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Wang Junjie:
8,308, level confidence: 45%.