Josh Davies v Nero Harms (Sat 08 Sep 2018)
Match won by Josh Davies. Result: 11-13,11-5,11-6,11-3.
Starting level for
Josh Davies:
1,059, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Nero Harms:
1,527, level confidence: 40%.
Nero Harms to win as he is currently playing
44% better than Josh Davies.
Josh Davies won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh Davies played
38% better than Nero Harms in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josh Davies actually played at a level of
1,491 and Nero Harms at a level of
1,084. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh Davies changes to +21% and Nero Harms changes to -33%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh Davies becomes +11.5% and for Nero Harms becomes -14%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal Welsh Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Josh Davies is limited to +10% and Nero Harms is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh Davies: 78%, Nero Harms: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh Davies: 56%, Nero Harms: 45%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Josh Davies:
1,168, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Nero Harms:
1,458, level confidence: 45%.