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Kijan Sultana v Josh Davies (Fri 07 Sep 2018)

Match won by Kijan Sultana. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Kijan Sultana: 4,109, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Josh Davies: 1,021, level confidence: 66%.
Kijan Sultana to win as he is currently playing 302% better than Josh Davies.

Kijan Sultana won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kijan Sultana played 136% better than Josh Davies in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Kijan Sultana was taking it easy by anything up to 35%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,758 and 4,109 without affecting his level.

In this case, Kijan Sultana played at level 2,543 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Kijan Sultana would normally have been playing at level 2,688 (based on typical behaviour), Josh Davies played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kijan Sultana changes to 0% and Josh Davies changes to +2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kijan Sultana becomes 0% and for Josh Davies becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal Welsh Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kijan Sultana: 75%, Josh Davies: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kijan Sultana: 58%, Josh Davies: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kijan Sultana: 4,119, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Josh Davies: 1,048, level confidence: 62%.