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Josh Davies v Shivam Singhal (Fri 07 Sep 2018)

Match won by Josh Davies. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Josh Davies: 967, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Shivam Singhal: 532, level confidence: 64%.
Josh Davies to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Shivam Singhal.

Josh Davies won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh Davies played 136% better than Shivam Singhal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josh Davies actually played at a level of 1,101 and Shivam Singhal at a level of 467. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh Davies changes to +10.1% and Shivam Singhal changes to -8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh Davies becomes +6.5% and for Shivam Singhal becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal Welsh Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh Davies: 73%, Shivam Singhal: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh Davies: 64%, Shivam Singhal: 70%.

A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Josh Davies: 1,032, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Shivam Singhal: 519, level confidence: 70%.