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Eain Yow Ng v Israr Ahmed (Thu 30 Aug 2018)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 7-11,11-8,16-14,11-6.

Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 30,630, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Israr Ahmed: 19,476, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Israr Ahmed.

Eain Yow Ng won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 22% better than Israr Ahmed in this match.

As Eain Yow Ng has played below his allowed range at 25,388, his level reduction is 7% before damping. On the assumption that Eain Yow Ng would normally have been playing at level 28,846 (based on typical behaviour), Israr Ahmed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to -5.1% and Israr Ahmed changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes -1.6% and for Israr Ahmed becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 90%, Israr Ahmed: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 80%, Israr Ahmed: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 30,095, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Israr Ahmed: 19,909, level confidence: 76%.