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Yew Sing Timothy Leong v Abdulla Al-Tamimi (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 9-11,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Yew Sing Timothy Leong: 9,862, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 38,715, level confidence: 52%.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing 293% better than Yew Sing Timothy Leong.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 43% better than Yew Sing Timothy Leong in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Abdulla Al-Tamimi was taking it easy by anything up to 34%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,015 and 38,715 without affecting his level.

As Abdulla Al-Tamimi has played below his allowed range at 15,505, his level reduction is 9.7% before damping. On the assumption that Abdulla Al-Tamimi would normally have been playing at level 25,666 (based on typical behaviour), Yew Sing Timothy Leong played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 35%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to -4.8% and Yew Sing Timothy Leong changes to +10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes -1.5% and for Yew Sing Timothy Leong becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 72%, Yew Sing Timothy Leong: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 44%, Yew Sing Timothy Leong: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Yew Sing Timothy Leong: 10,182, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 38,084, level confidence: 44%.