Eain Yow Ng v Agung Wilant (Tue 28 Aug 2018)
Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-4.
Starting level for
Eain Yow Ng:
30,308, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Agung Wilant:
5,568, level confidence: 37%.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing
444% better than Agung Wilant.
Eain Yow Ng won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played
200% better than Agung Wilant in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Eain Yow Ng was taking it easy by anything up to 45%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,280 and 30,308 without affecting his level.
In this case, Eain Yow Ng played at level 16,737 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Agung Wilant is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to 0% and Agung Wilant changes to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 91%, Agung Wilant: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 68%, Agung Wilant: 45%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng:
30,263, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Agung Wilant:
5,562, level confidence: 45%.