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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Agung Wilant (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 36,625, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Agung Wilant: 5,480, level confidence: 33%.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing 568% better than Agung Wilant.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 175% better than Agung Wilant in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Abdulla Al-Tamimi was taking it easy by anything up to 50%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,134 and 36,625 without affecting his level.

In this case, Abdulla Al-Tamimi played at level 16,602 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Abdulla Al-Tamimi would normally have been playing at level 18,290 (based on typical behaviour), Agung Wilant played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to 0% and Agung Wilant changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes 0% and for Agung Wilant becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 68%, Agung Wilant: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 44%, Agung Wilant: 37%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 36,570, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Agung Wilant: 5,578, level confidence: 37%.