Diego Elias v Shawn Delierre (Mon 27 Aug 2018)
Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-3.
Starting level for
Diego Elias:
43,279, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Shawn Delierre:
20,376, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing
112% better than Shawn Delierre.
Diego Elias won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played
175% better than Shawn Delierre in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of
49,245 and Shawn Delierre at a level of
17,907. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.3% and 9.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +9.3% and Shawn Delierre changes to -6.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +2.3% and for Shawn Delierre becomes -2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 81%, Shawn Delierre: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 71%, Shawn Delierre: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Diego Elias:
43,909, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Shawn Delierre:
20,113, level confidence: 82%.