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Diego Elias v Timothy Brownell (Sun 26 Aug 2018)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 12-10,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 43,848, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Timothy Brownell: 17,687, level confidence: 44%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 148% better than Timothy Brownell.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 39% better than Timothy Brownell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Elias was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 29,200 and 43,848 without affecting his level.

As Diego Elias has played below his allowed range at 26,771, his level reduction is 9.1% before damping. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 35,782 (based on typical behaviour), Timothy Brownell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to -3.1% and Timothy Brownell changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes -1.2% and for Timothy Brownell becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 88%, Timothy Brownell: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 66%, Timothy Brownell: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 43,279, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Timothy Brownell: 18,257, level confidence: 49%.