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Diego Elias v Joe Chapman (Sat 25 Aug 2018)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 43,113, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Joe Chapman: 10,146, level confidence: 53%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 325% better than Joe Chapman.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 267% better than Joe Chapman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Elias was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,367 and 43,113 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Elias played at level 37,202 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Joe Chapman is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 71%, Joe Chapman: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 66%, Joe Chapman: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 43,048, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Joe Chapman: 10,131, level confidence: 67%.